When people discover that I write about football for a living, they always ask me who I think is going to win the Super Bowl. Obviously I care, but I’m just as invested in determining who’s going to win a meaningless Week 7 game. So here are some tips for NFL gambling if you’re new, or looking for a new wrinkle on your own angle.
REMEMBER THAT EACH SEASON IS MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
In 2003, when Jon Gruden was coaching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship against the Philadelphia Eagles, he was asked about his warm weather team’s poor performance historically in cold weather games. The trend was that the Bucs had never won a game when the temperature was less than 40-degrees. Gruden balked at this idea saying “We are undefeated in cold weather, we are 1-0. We played one game in cold weather this and won it decisively”. Gruden was right – the Bucs would kill Philly and then march on to the team’s only Super Bowl victory.
This serves as a reminder that historical trends aren’t the be-all, end-all of your betting decisions on Sunday. They can absolutely help shape your opinion of a game, or a betting line, but they should not be the final nail in the coffin, so to speak. Always remember that each season is a new one and deserves to be treated as such. Avoid hot trends like “always bet on Team X at home”. You shouldn’t “always” do anything just because. Have the courage to read between the lines and second-guess the information you’re taking in.
FIND THE HOT TEAM AND RIDE THEM IN TO THE GROUND
Sometimes a team that shouldn’t be any good on the field is inexplicably strong as a betting team. In 2014, San Diego was that team at the beginning of the season, ripping out to a glorious 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS start. They followed that up by going 2-9 ATS the rest of the way but for that brief glimpse they were as good as gold before the well dried up.
Coincidentally, when the Chargers fell off the cliff, the Vikings started to pick up steam with a resounding 8-2 ATS run to end the year that the brave and the bold made cash on hand over fist.
In 2013, the Bengals never lost against the spread when playing at home. It was the dumbest, easiest and most ridiculous thing to wager on during the course of the season.
The crazy part? None of these runs made a lick of sense. When a hot team gets hot for no explicable reason, the oddsmakers have no idea what to do and the public is too scared to get in on the action. This is where having a bit of courage and taking a leap of faith is a good thing.
NFL BETTING IS A GIVE AND TAKE SITUATION
I mean that literally in terms of turnovers. The Packers (9-6-1 ATS), Patriots (9-7 ATS) and Texans (9-6-1 ATS) were the three best turnover teams in the NFL during 2014. The teams with the worst turnover differential were the Redskins (5-11 ATS), Jets (6-9-1 ATS), Raiders (8-8 ATS) and Saints (6-11 ATS). Hopefully you see a pattern developing.
“SEE IT THEN BELIEVE IT”
Preseason is one of my least favorite times of the year because it’s filled with a bunch of hyperbole about nothing but speculation. Even if you believe a team is going to make a “jump”, you need to see it before you start believe/betting on it. This is one of my biggest tips for betting NFL football. Even a two week sample is better than just guessing that a team will show up the way you think they will.
An example of this is the 2014 Indianapolis Colts who have been one of the best money makers in the NFL for three straight years. They went 11-5 SU and 10-5-1 ATS last season. Those five losses were against Denver, Philly, Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England who were all playoff worthy teams (the Eagles game was in Week 2 before Foles was injured).
The hard truth about Indy is that they were an overachieving team that can beat up on bad competition but never beat elite competition, just as we saw in the playoffs. People were ready to anoint them as AFC Champions, but I wasn’t sold until they bested some legitimate contenders, which they neve did.
It’s easy to get caught up with the cattle – always have the patience to see it before you believe it, especially if everyone is heading in that direction before they have a tangible reason to do so.
DEFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS ARE A BIG DEAL
Everyone can track offensive stats because they’re rammed down our throat thanks to fantasy football and announcers. But giving up first down defensively is one of the easiest metrics to bet against, and one of the great insider tips for NFL gambling.
Proof is in the pudding: in the 2014 the five teams that gave up the most first downs were Atlanta (7-9 ATS), Tampa (7-9 ATS), Tennessee (3-12-1 ATS) and New Orleans (6-10 ATS) and Cleveland (9-5-1 ATS). Obviously, Cleveland is the outlier here but you get the idea.
BAD ROAD TEAMS MAKE BAD BETS
Picking on the bottom of the barrel again, the five worst road teams in 2014 were Oakland (8-8 ATS), Jacksonville (6-9-1 ATS), Washington (5-11 ATS), Tennessee (3-12-1 ATS) and Tampa (7-9 ATS). When teams travel they tend to reveal themselves, so if a team is pulling a two-faced act when playing at home and travelling then you know you have an unreliable team on your hands.
WEEK 5 THRU 15 IS THE MONEY MAKER
A lot of gamblers are so excited for the beginning of the season that they drain their bank roll in the first month before you really figure anything out. As I said in my first point, each season deserves to live in a vacuum of sorts and it can take at least a month for the market to show its true colors. Beginning in Week 5 you simply know more about the current season than you did a month ago, and four games is a strong enough sample size to draw some legitimate conclusions for Week 5 and beyond.
All I’m suggesting is that you play it cool for the first month. Know your limits, take in the information, lob some safe plays and give yourself a chance to play when the experts do.
WATCH THE DAMN GAMES
More important than anything, watch the damn games. Reading boxscores never tells the whole story. Highlights are glimpses of an entire narrative without telling the whole tale. Eventually you have to learn to trust your own instincts if you’re going to be really good at this, and watching the games is the only way to make this happen. If I can offer any, single tip for NFL gambling, it’s to enjoy your Sunday by taking in as much of the action as humanly possible. It’s what Sundays are for, right?
NorthBet 